(Sir John Johns / uselectionatlas.org) The MAS now controlled 241 out of 339 municipalities, against 230 out of 337 four years ago. It should be note that the MAS ran unopposed in 30 municipalities. The most-voted opposition parties are respectively, the Democrats/MDS with 23 municipalities (all in Santa Cruz Department), the Movement for Sovereignty (MPS) with 14 (all in La Paz; the MPS is an indigenist and far-left split from the MAS), and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement with 11. In total, 36 different political parties or coalitions have won at least one municipality.
(march 29).- Local elections are been held today in Bolivia with 9 department governors and 339 mayors up for election. Departmental assemblies and municipal councils are also to be renewed. Mayors are elected in a single round through FPTP. Conversely, to be elected by first round, a candidate for governor must win more than 50% fo the vote or at least 40% of the vote with a 10% lead over the second-place candidate; otherwise, a run-off between the two top candidates will be held on May 3, 2015.
Latest polls showed the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) losing ground after having won last October national elections in a landslide. The MAS is now at risk to lose several of its strongholds, notably the governorship of La Paz department and the mayoralty of El Alto.
Several corruption scandals has erupted these last weeks with the most damaging being the investigation of massive embezzlement at Indigenous Development Fund for Native Farmers (Fondioc), an agency charged with the funding of development projects. An audit has revealed that some $11 million of the Fondioc funds has been used to finance “ghost projects” which benefited to members of the MAS.
The selection process of the MAS candidates has also raised internal critics as, in various places, the candidates chosen by the grassroots militancy were ignored and replaced by people designated by Morales. Several members of the MAS have notably criticized the selection as candidates of right-winger turncoats or figures from the business sector. According to this article, Morales has also lost the support of the indigenous from the lowlands due to his extractive policy.
Meanwhile, the independence of the electoral authorities have been questioned as in the Beni department, the whole slate of the main opposition party has been disqualified after one of its member had publicly disclosed the result of an internal poll.
The MAS currently held every governorships but Santa Cruz and Beni, which are by now controled by the conservative Social Democrat Movement, also known as the Democrats.
In the La Paz department, the incumbent MAS governor César Cocarico renounced to run for reelection due to the poor handling of a child abuse case and allegations of nepotism. Instead, the MAS is running as candidate the leader of a local indigenous women's organization, Felipa Huanca, whose name has been linked to the Fondioc case. She's facing a strong challenge from Félix Patzi, an ancient ally of Morales (he was education minister in his government) who was expelled from the MAS after being arrested for driving under influence. Patzi is now running under the banner of the center-left Sovereignty and Liberty (SOL.bo), a party founded last year by La Paz mayor Luis Revilla, after its previous party, the Movement without Fear, lost its registration due to poor electoral results. Five other candidates are running. The most relevant are Elizabeth Reyes of the right-wing National Unity Front (UN), whose candidacy was initially rejected on a technicality, and radical Aymara activist and former presidential candidate Felipe Quispe.
In the Santa Cruz department, after the historical victory of Morales last year in this opposition stronghold, the MAS has some hopes to finally capture the governorship. However, the polls indicate that incumbent governor Rubén Costas (Democrats, right-wing) will be largely reelected against the MAS candidate, a trade unionist. Interestingly enough, at some point, the MAS seriously considered nominating the leader of a local business association as its candidate for governor.
In the Cochabamba department, the MAS candidate, journalist and former government spokesman Iván Canelas should be largely elected.
Similarly, the MAS should keep the governorship of the Potosí department where former deputy Juan Carlos Cejas has been designated as candidate. A poll indicated that the candidate of the Movimiento Originario Popular, who has linked with trade unions and rural workers' organizations, would finished in second place; same poll gave however 43% of voters who will cast a blank vote or would not vote for any of the candidates.
In the Chuquisaca department, the MAS incumbent governor (elected in 2010) Esteban Urquizu is the favorite. Latest polls indicate 24% of undecided voters which could favored his challenger Damián Condóri, the leader of the CSUTCB, an agrarian union, who renounced to support the MAS to run for an independent list. Condóri has been since be expelled from the CSUTCB.
In the Oruro department, the selection process for MAS candidates turned into a mess. The MAS militants nominated trade unionist Edgar Sánchez as candidate for governor; however, arguing of corruption allegations against Sánchez, Evo Morales dismissed Sánchez and designated instead his own deputy minister for Rural Development, Víctor Hugo Vásquez. An infuriated Sánchez tried to mounted his own candidacy under the banner of a citizen's movement named Popular Participation, only to surprisingly withdraw in the middle of the race. The MAS should have no problem there to keep the governorship.
In the Tarija department, the 2010 election was won by opposition candidate Mario Cossío. After few weeks in office, Cossío was suspended under accusation of corruption (Cossío claimed the allegations are bogus) and replaced by a MAS dude thanks to an alliance between the MAS and a local party. The MAS incumbent isn't running for reelection. The MAS designated Carlos Cabrera, its unsuccessful candidate in 2010, to run again for governor; however, Cabrera was disqualified for not having resigned his faculty dean post at time. The new MAS candidate, Pablo Canedo, is trailing in the polls behind Adrián Oliva who is running as the candidate for the conservative Autonomist Departmental Unity (UD-A). Two MAS dissidents, Luis Alfaro and Aluida Vilte, are also running against Canedo, claiming that the latter 'doesn't adhere to the socialist ideology'.
The situation is very confuse in the Beni department, which have been an opposition stronghold and a department that Morales has always failed to win. The governor elected in 2010, Ernesto Suárez, was suspended in 2011 for corruption charges in what has been presented by the opposition as a political persecution. After the resignation of Suárez, by-election was held in 2013.
The candidate of Suárez's party handily won over the MAS candidate. In 2014, Suárez was selected by Samuel Doria Medina to be his running mate in the presidential election. Suárez was selected by the Democrats to be its candidate for governor this year but, as explained above, his candidacy like those of all of his co-religionists, was disqualified on quite bizarre grounds. It remains to see how right-wing voters will react and if they would vote for the candidate of the populist Revolutionary Nationalist Movement, veteran politician Sandro Giordano (he is a former president of the national Senate), to prevent the election of MAS candidate Alex Ferrier. For some reason, a minor candidate chose to withdraw in the last days to endorse Suárez, despite the disqualification of the latter.
There is no real contest in Pando department where latest poll gives MAS incumbent Luis Flores reelected with 70% of the votes.
Municipal elections
The most watched race is the election of mayor of El Alto, a suburb of La Paz and the nexus of the protests against the 'neo-liberal' governments at the begin of the 2000s. Incumbent MAS mayor Edgar Patana, already criticized for his poor management, is seriously threatened after the uncovering of a video footage showing former El Alto mayor Fanor Nava giving Patana a small package which allegedly contained money. Patana said he doesn't remember what was inside the said package. Patana could be defeated by Soledad Chapetón, the 34-year old UN candidate, who has been noticed by Bolivian medias for her Aymara background (even if she herself doesn't wear the traditional custom nor is fluent in Aymara).
The MAS has little hope to capture the mayoralty of La Paz from incumbent Luis Revilla who is seeking a second term. The MAS candidate is Guillermo Mendoza, a turncoat who has began his political career in the ranks of the UN.
Similarly, right-wing incumbent Percy Fernández is widely favored to be elected to a sixth term as mayor of Santa Cruz under the banner of his own personal vehicle, Santa Cruz para Todos.
In Oruro, the MAS supported incumbent mayor Rossío Pimentel who was elected in 2010 for the Movement without Fear but later defected to the MAS. She will faced former mayor Edgar Bazán, running with his personal outfit which is named the 'San Felipe de Austria Citizen Movement' (San Felipe de Austria was Oruro's name during colonial era).
In Cochabamba, the MAS incumbent Edwin Castellanos (elected in 2010) declined to run again forcing the MAS to chose a replacement in a rush. Latest poll gives the latter trailing behind the 32-year old right-wing candidate who is running for the Democrats.
Rodrigo Paz (United to Reform, UNIR), son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, is the big favorite to become next Tarijamayor and succeeded his co-religionary Oscar Montes Barzón who ruled the city since fifteen years. Against the willingness of the MAS local section, Evo Morales designated former right-wing deputy Rodrigo Ibáñez to run against Paz.
The only run-offs to be held on 3 May will be to choose the Beni governor and the Chuquisaca governor.
Morales has conceded defeat and blamed the MAS's losses on a protest vote against corruption allegations, on selection of poor candidates by the party base and, in the case of the defeat in La Paz department, on supposed machismo of the voters.
Latest polls showed the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) losing ground after having won last October national elections in a landslide. The MAS is now at risk to lose several of its strongholds, notably the governorship of La Paz department and the mayoralty of El Alto.
Several corruption scandals has erupted these last weeks with the most damaging being the investigation of massive embezzlement at Indigenous Development Fund for Native Farmers (Fondioc), an agency charged with the funding of development projects. An audit has revealed that some $11 million of the Fondioc funds has been used to finance “ghost projects” which benefited to members of the MAS.
The selection process of the MAS candidates has also raised internal critics as, in various places, the candidates chosen by the grassroots militancy were ignored and replaced by people designated by Morales. Several members of the MAS have notably criticized the selection as candidates of right-winger turncoats or figures from the business sector. According to this article, Morales has also lost the support of the indigenous from the lowlands due to his extractive policy.
Meanwhile, the independence of the electoral authorities have been questioned as in the Beni department, the whole slate of the main opposition party has been disqualified after one of its member had publicly disclosed the result of an internal poll.
The MAS currently held every governorships but Santa Cruz and Beni, which are by now controled by the conservative Social Democrat Movement, also known as the Democrats.
In the La Paz department, the incumbent MAS governor César Cocarico renounced to run for reelection due to the poor handling of a child abuse case and allegations of nepotism. Instead, the MAS is running as candidate the leader of a local indigenous women's organization, Felipa Huanca, whose name has been linked to the Fondioc case. She's facing a strong challenge from Félix Patzi, an ancient ally of Morales (he was education minister in his government) who was expelled from the MAS after being arrested for driving under influence. Patzi is now running under the banner of the center-left Sovereignty and Liberty (SOL.bo), a party founded last year by La Paz mayor Luis Revilla, after its previous party, the Movement without Fear, lost its registration due to poor electoral results. Five other candidates are running. The most relevant are Elizabeth Reyes of the right-wing National Unity Front (UN), whose candidacy was initially rejected on a technicality, and radical Aymara activist and former presidential candidate Felipe Quispe.
In the Santa Cruz department, after the historical victory of Morales last year in this opposition stronghold, the MAS has some hopes to finally capture the governorship. However, the polls indicate that incumbent governor Rubén Costas (Democrats, right-wing) will be largely reelected against the MAS candidate, a trade unionist. Interestingly enough, at some point, the MAS seriously considered nominating the leader of a local business association as its candidate for governor.
In the Cochabamba department, the MAS candidate, journalist and former government spokesman Iván Canelas should be largely elected.
Similarly, the MAS should keep the governorship of the Potosí department where former deputy Juan Carlos Cejas has been designated as candidate. A poll indicated that the candidate of the Movimiento Originario Popular, who has linked with trade unions and rural workers' organizations, would finished in second place; same poll gave however 43% of voters who will cast a blank vote or would not vote for any of the candidates.
In the Chuquisaca department, the MAS incumbent governor (elected in 2010) Esteban Urquizu is the favorite. Latest polls indicate 24% of undecided voters which could favored his challenger Damián Condóri, the leader of the CSUTCB, an agrarian union, who renounced to support the MAS to run for an independent list. Condóri has been since be expelled from the CSUTCB.
In the Oruro department, the selection process for MAS candidates turned into a mess. The MAS militants nominated trade unionist Edgar Sánchez as candidate for governor; however, arguing of corruption allegations against Sánchez, Evo Morales dismissed Sánchez and designated instead his own deputy minister for Rural Development, Víctor Hugo Vásquez. An infuriated Sánchez tried to mounted his own candidacy under the banner of a citizen's movement named Popular Participation, only to surprisingly withdraw in the middle of the race. The MAS should have no problem there to keep the governorship.
In the Tarija department, the 2010 election was won by opposition candidate Mario Cossío. After few weeks in office, Cossío was suspended under accusation of corruption (Cossío claimed the allegations are bogus) and replaced by a MAS dude thanks to an alliance between the MAS and a local party. The MAS incumbent isn't running for reelection. The MAS designated Carlos Cabrera, its unsuccessful candidate in 2010, to run again for governor; however, Cabrera was disqualified for not having resigned his faculty dean post at time. The new MAS candidate, Pablo Canedo, is trailing in the polls behind Adrián Oliva who is running as the candidate for the conservative Autonomist Departmental Unity (UD-A). Two MAS dissidents, Luis Alfaro and Aluida Vilte, are also running against Canedo, claiming that the latter 'doesn't adhere to the socialist ideology'.
The situation is very confuse in the Beni department, which have been an opposition stronghold and a department that Morales has always failed to win. The governor elected in 2010, Ernesto Suárez, was suspended in 2011 for corruption charges in what has been presented by the opposition as a political persecution. After the resignation of Suárez, by-election was held in 2013.
The candidate of Suárez's party handily won over the MAS candidate. In 2014, Suárez was selected by Samuel Doria Medina to be his running mate in the presidential election. Suárez was selected by the Democrats to be its candidate for governor this year but, as explained above, his candidacy like those of all of his co-religionists, was disqualified on quite bizarre grounds. It remains to see how right-wing voters will react and if they would vote for the candidate of the populist Revolutionary Nationalist Movement, veteran politician Sandro Giordano (he is a former president of the national Senate), to prevent the election of MAS candidate Alex Ferrier. For some reason, a minor candidate chose to withdraw in the last days to endorse Suárez, despite the disqualification of the latter.
There is no real contest in Pando department where latest poll gives MAS incumbent Luis Flores reelected with 70% of the votes.
Municipal elections
The most watched race is the election of mayor of El Alto, a suburb of La Paz and the nexus of the protests against the 'neo-liberal' governments at the begin of the 2000s. Incumbent MAS mayor Edgar Patana, already criticized for his poor management, is seriously threatened after the uncovering of a video footage showing former El Alto mayor Fanor Nava giving Patana a small package which allegedly contained money. Patana said he doesn't remember what was inside the said package. Patana could be defeated by Soledad Chapetón, the 34-year old UN candidate, who has been noticed by Bolivian medias for her Aymara background (even if she herself doesn't wear the traditional custom nor is fluent in Aymara).
The MAS has little hope to capture the mayoralty of La Paz from incumbent Luis Revilla who is seeking a second term. The MAS candidate is Guillermo Mendoza, a turncoat who has began his political career in the ranks of the UN.
Similarly, right-wing incumbent Percy Fernández is widely favored to be elected to a sixth term as mayor of Santa Cruz under the banner of his own personal vehicle, Santa Cruz para Todos.
In Oruro, the MAS supported incumbent mayor Rossío Pimentel who was elected in 2010 for the Movement without Fear but later defected to the MAS. She will faced former mayor Edgar Bazán, running with his personal outfit which is named the 'San Felipe de Austria Citizen Movement' (San Felipe de Austria was Oruro's name during colonial era).
In Cochabamba, the MAS incumbent Edwin Castellanos (elected in 2010) declined to run again forcing the MAS to chose a replacement in a rush. Latest poll gives the latter trailing behind the 32-year old right-wing candidate who is running for the Democrats.
Rodrigo Paz (United to Reform, UNIR), son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, is the big favorite to become next Tarijamayor and succeeded his co-religionary Oscar Montes Barzón who ruled the city since fifteen years. Against the willingness of the MAS local section, Evo Morales designated former right-wing deputy Rodrigo Ibáñez to run against Paz.
The only run-offs to be held on 3 May will be to choose the Beni governor and the Chuquisaca governor.
Morales has conceded defeat and blamed the MAS's losses on a protest vote against corruption allegations, on selection of poor candidates by the party base and, in the case of the defeat in La Paz department, on supposed machismo of the voters.
This article says the MAS was defeated because of the corruption cases but it also pays the price for its poor management in El Alto and Cochabamba municipalities, and in the La Paz Department. Unlike the opposition parties which ran young candidates, the MAS has largely failed to renew its local leadership; as I wrote above, some of its candidates, despite having been chosen by the party local base, were blocked by Morales. The president has also his share of responsibility in the defeat by campaigning extensively for the MAS candidates and for intimidating voters by threats of non-cooperation with the elected opposition officials, thus provoking a backlash from the voters.
The MAS still managed to get decent results in the gubernatorial elections thanks to the lack of electoral influence of the opposition in the countryside. Results are worst in the large cities as the MAS apparently only managed to gain Sucre mayoralty from the opposition (thanks apparently to the incompetence of the incumbent mayor). As all votes have been counted in Cobija, former soccer player Luis Gatty Ribeiro is the new mayor of the Pando capital, defeating the MAS incumbent 49.1%/46.1%.
In Trinidad (capital of Beni), Mário Suárez (MNR) beats Rolf Kohler (MAS) 43.2%/38%. The city has been held since 1999 by retired general Moisés Shriqui (UD) who was disqualified like the rest of the UD departmental slate of candidates few days before the vote. After being forced out of the race, Shriqui endorsed Suárez.
Things got different in the rest of the Beni department as there is bad blood between the MNR and the UD, the latter being the successor of the Nationalist Democratic Action (ADN) which had conflictual relations with the MNR. When Ernesto Suárez (UD) - the big favorite for governor election - was disqualified, he renounced to endorse the MNR candidate after talks between the two parties failed and instead engaged talks with Juan Willy Mae, the candidate of the 'Autonomous Nationalities for Change and Revolutionary Empowerment' (NACER) and a not well-known guy, who got 3% in the polls. Mae resigned his candidacy, officially on health grounds, actually to make room for an UD candidate, Carlos Dellién. This has apparently confused voters as there were an unusual large number of abstainers and blank/null votes. It certainly doesn't help that the ballot papers inaccurately pictured Mae's photo instead of Dellién's one and still figured Suárez as candidate. The COD trade union has already called for the resignation of the president of the Beni Department Electoral Court. The OAS observers have also criticized the disqualification of the UD and the whole mess in the Beni department.
The outcome in Beni will depend on the MAS' ability to capture first round's MNR voters and/or the UD's ability to get their voters go to vote for Dellién. The MAS has a shot there, in what is a right-wing stronghold where it has so far never win an election. Nevertheless, the legitimacy of an eventual victory of the MAS will certainly be questioned.
In the other run-off, in the Chuquisaca department, Condóri (CST, ex-MAS) appeared to have the edge over Urquizu (official MAS candidate). Both candidates are basically at the same level of support (over 45%), but the third candidate, who got around 5%, belong to the opposition.
The Department Electoral Court (TED) of Chuquisaca decided unanimously to nullify the votes for Valeriano who had withdraw from the race few days before the election but whose name still appeared on the ballot. As a consequence, the MAS candidate Estebán Urquizu get now over 50% of the valid votes and is reelected as governor. No run-off will be held. The CST has said it will appealed against the TED's ruling.
The ruling has been criticized for being inconsistent with the ruling of the La Paz TED in a similar case. The La Paz TED then decided to count as valid the votes for a candidate who had withdraw just before the election.
Meanwhile, in the Beni Department, the MNR had divided itself over the choice of the candidate to support in second round. The national leadership of the party has decided to support the NACER candidate; however, the MNR candidate in first round, Sandro Giordano, and part of the local sections have endorsed the MAS candidate.
The MAS now controlled 241 out of 339 municipalities, against 230 out of 337 four years ago. It should be note that the MAS ran unopposed in 30 municipalities. The most-voted opposition parties are respectively, the Democrats/MDS with 23 municipalities (all in Santa Cruz Department), the Movement for Sovereignty (MPS) with 14 (all in La Paz; the MPS is an indigenist and far-left split from the MAS), and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement with 11. In total, 36 different political parties or coalitions have won at least one municipality.
The MAS's apparent hegemony and its control over 66% of the municipalities hide the fact that municipalities won by the opposition parties account for 59% of the total population. The opposition parties would also now have to manage 63% of the financial resources allocated by the central state to the municipal authorities. In short, the MAS has won the rural vote and increased its control over the countryside (with notable exception in the La Paz Department where it lost ground to the MPS) while losing the urban vote as it only won 2 out of the 10 “principal” municipalities (9 prefectural capital + El Alto).
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